Monte Carlo
Each replication draws the 56-match home-and-away NEC slate from the same card ratings you roll on the table, then plays the four-team tournament (1v4, 2v3, championship). 139,000 is enough that a one-point championship gap is not noise.
P(row wins a match hosted by row). Same ratings as the cards.
| Home | LIU | FDU | Mercyhurst | CCSU | New Haven | Stonehill | Le Moyne | Chicago St. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIU | — | 81% | 86% | 72% | 83% | 83% | 87% | 85% |
| FDU | 57% | — | 76% | 60% | 73% | 74% | 79% | 76% |
| Mercyhurst | 50% | 64% | — | 53% | 67% | 67% | 73% | 70% |
| CCSU | 68% | 80% | 84% | — | 82% | 82% | 86% | 84% |
| New Haven | 54% | 67% | 74% | 56% | — | 71% | 76% | 73% |
| Stonehill | 54% | 67% | 73% | 56% | 70% | — | 76% | 73% |
| Le Moyne | 48% | 61% | 68% | 50% | 64% | 65% | — | 67% |
| Chicago St. | 51% | 64% | 71% | 53% | 67% | 68% | 73% | — |